COMPILED FROM STAFF REPORTS

Barack Obama could make major gains in at least nine states the Democratic presidential ticket lost in 2004 if he can achieve a relatively modest increase in turnout among young and African-American voters, a Chicago Tribune analysis of voting data suggests.

Just a 10 percent increase in turnout among Blacks would make up more than 20 percent of the Republicans’ 2004 victory margin in Florida. As reported in the Florida Courier last week, the Obama general election effort kicked off in Florida two weeks ago with the appointment of its state campaign manager and deputy state director.

The Obama campaign has about 20 paid workers in Florida thus far and brought out-of-state volunteer 400 “fellows” who will focus on a Florida voter registration drive for the next five weeks. Campaign volunteers in other states have been registering voters at bars and nightclubs as well as visiting hip-hop parties and even gas stations—where drivers irate over rising fuel prices are a target, said one organizer.

Other states within striking distance with high Black or youth voter turnout, or both, include Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Missouri, Virginia and North Carolina.

20-percent increase possible?
“Based upon the enthusiasm and the greater historical significance this time around, I certainly think a 20 percent increase in Black turnout would be entirely within the range of possibility,” said David Bositis, a research associate who studies African-American voting trends at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Washington, D.C.

The closest historical parallel is the Rev. Jesse Jackson’s 1984 primary run, which also featured a heavy emphasis on voter registration and generated enormous enthusiasm among African-Americans. Even though Jackson did not win the nomination and Walter Mondale was on the ballot instead, Black voter turnout that fall was up 11 percent from four years earlier, likely reflecting the rise in Black voter regi

stration, which climbed 11 percent, according to U.S. Census statistics.

Exit polls positive
One indicator of the level of excitement this time: Exit polls from the Democratic primaries in states where such information was available this year indicated turnout among Blacks more than doubled from four years earlier, according to an analysis by Bositis.

That potential helps explain why the Obama campaign chose to forgo federal funding and why it is engaged in a massive voter registration drive. With its unprecedented resources, the campaign can fund an array of specific targeting operations, and Obama exploited early versions of those to great success during the primary campaign.

NAACP focuses on education, registration
Miami-Dade’s Adora Obi Nweze, president of the Florida State Conference of NAACP Branches, said state NAACP branches have their own game plan.

“We have an obligation to educate voters on the process, inform voters on the issues, register voters and get the vote out in a non-partisan way,” Nweze told the Florida Courier. “Across the state, we have been working very hard. We’re just making sure each (NAACP) unit does what it’s supposed to do.

“Our issues in Florida are health—we have the highest HIV/AIDS rates. Education—we have a terrible graduation and suspension rate. The (Miami-Dade County) school system alone is losing $500 million. Our juvenile criminal issue is horrific. Crime is bad for us in the African-American community, especially with the high rate of unemployment. People are out on the street and I’ve never seen it this bad before.

Will Obama use Black media, consultants?
“I can’t imagine him (Obama) not putting people into the Black community. As to whether he’s putting his money there too, I don’t know where the money is going. I do know you have to put in for the money and have a plan. We have to do what we can to access it. Blacks can’t sit back and say, ‘he didn’t come to us.’”

Mike Dorning of the Chicago Tribune/MCT and Starla Vaughns Cherin of the Florida Courier contributed to this report.